New Drivers Licenses for Maine are Ugly

See picture. Enough said.

From http://www.pressherald.com/news/New-Maine-license-unveiled.html

We were Spoiled

A business analyst’s take on why this winter has sucked so much from weather.gov.

Is it too much political irony that the flip coincides exactly with LePage’s January inauguration.  The cold icy winds of change can be tough on the soul.

While there may be only 10 days until spring, the 2014 election is 1,335 miserably cold days away.

And Nutting Wins!

New Speaker of the Maine House of Representatives.

Not the owner of the Pittsburgh Pirates.

House Speakers Part Deux

As a follow up to Keith's post, here are profiles for the three other Republican speaker candidates in Maine:

Andre Cushing

Andre Cushing of Hampden, is a rookie Representative, serving his first term in the House for District 39. From his website you can see that he is also on the Hampden town council and serves as Deputy Mayor.

Recently, Mr. Cushing wrote a guest column in the Bangor Daily News in which he makes a rather benign case against public funding being used in elections. You can read that column here.

You can also watch Mr. Cushing's "Voice for Paul" in which he jumbles together talking points in support of Paul LePage. (As a side note, I do plan to go back and watch more of these "Voices for Paul" and will report back).




Paul Davis

Hailing from Sangerville (way up near Dover-Foxcroft), Rep. Paul Davis covers District 26. Also serving his first term, Mr. Davis brings a stronger resume than does Mr. Cushing - four terms as a state Senator in which he served two terms as Senate leader.

In this 2006 commentary on Baldacci's re-election, we perhaps have a summary of Mr. Davis' ideals for the state of Maine, in particular this strong statement:

"Maine does not have an effective Energy Plan. And the hardworking people of Maine are paying the price. In addition to having one of the country's highest gasoline taxes, our electricity costs are increasing at a staggering rate.

Energy efficiency is a key to our well-being. We need a long term strategy.
A Strategy that brings all the resources of the private and public sector together.

Depending upon communist rulers and dictators for handouts and charity is not an energy policy.

Great! Let's make it happen. I and most MG readers can certainly support this, though I think we can dispute his characterization of Mr. Baldacci's energy policy. Mr. Davis' experience on the National Panel on Energy and Agriculture (under the National Conference of State Legislatures) shows commitment to issues to energy and conservation. I hope that when federal tax dollars are available for renewable infrastructure development Mr Davis won't turn his back...

Stacey Fitts

Stacey Fitts is serving his third term in the Maine house and represents District 29, which includes his hometown of Pittsfield. Mr. Fitts was the ranking Republican on the Legal and Veterans Affairs panel.

Mr. Fitts is a supporter of the Electoral College, casinos ("You know everything you do is a recycling of dollars, whether you have a restaurant or any other type of entertainment venue. So this [Hollywood Slots in Bangor] is just another example of an entertainment opportunity that people would like to have available to them..."), and the populism of petitions and referendums:





I was excited to see that Mr. Fitts was an advocate of wind power under Baldacci's administration. But as the Citizen's Task Force AGAINST Maine wind power neatly confirms, Mr. Fitts is also employed by Kleinschmidt Associates, a semi-national water and energy consultant. On his Linkedin page, Mr. Fitts lists his role at Kleinshmidt as Field Services Specialist. I guess that explains the tone of this Bangor Daily News editorial against small scale renewable energy generation.

As an aside, this was Mr. Fitts' democratic opponent in this November's election:



Amazing!

Speaker Profiles

This is part I of a two part series.  There are 6 candidates vying for Speaker of the House of Representatives in Maine now that the body has become Republican. 

Pat Flood

Patrick Flood’s bio from his House webpage:

A retired forest products company manager, Rep. Flood received his undergraduate degrees from the State University of New York College of Environmental Science and Forestry and Syracuse University in 1974. He worked in various management roles in the forest products industry until 2004 when he retired and ran for the Legislature.

He is beginning his fourth term in the House and is on the Appropriations and Financial Affairs Committee as well as the Joint Select Committee on Joint Rules (no doubt the outcome of the Medial Marijuana bill, ha ha little joke). 

In his webpage, his testimonials point out that he’s a “non-partisan problem solver” and “the one person not afraid to talk to the other side.”  He’s noted to be very studious, and someone who “enjoys the tedium of studying the state budget line by line.”  In About Pat Flood, he emphasizes environmental protection, encouraging business opportunities, and management of the state’s finances as high priorities.

His signature sponsored legislation included LD 144.  Requiring 2/3rds and failing by 8 votes, it would have reduced the size of the Maine legislature.  In a list of other sponsored legislation, there’s clearly a focus on land conservation and fiscal discipline. Here’s his sponsored list for the last session. 

VoteSmart has interest group ratings for Pat Flood.  No big surprises here - high in business and gun issues (big surprise), and low as ranked by the AFL-CIO and Maine People’s Alliance.  Pat represents Winthrop district 82.  In the 2010 gubernatorial race, he supported Steven Abbott in the Republican primary (info via Huffington Post donation lookup)

Robert Nutting

Robert Nunning has returned to the Maine House 6 times representing Oakland Maine.  He has been in the budget reviewing Appropriations Committee for two terms.

He ascended from the Oakland Town Council and worked as a licensed  pharmacist.  He lists his hobbies as hunting, golf, and gardening.

Not nearly as active in sponsoring legislation as Pat Flood, Nutting sponsored two bills in the last session to revise the border between Waterville and Oakland and to help cosmetologists, barbers, and manicurists perform work outside of their primary business location. 

In 2010, Nunning made a $500 contribution to LePage’s campaign and actively supported his bid for governorship.  Oakland borders LePage’s hometown of Waterville (the borders were recently updated, see above). 

Meredith N. Strang Burgess

A Southern Maine House Representative serving District 108 (Chebeague Island, Cumberland, Long Island, and North Yarmouth), Rep. Strang Burgess is the founder and owner of Burgess Advertising & Marketing in Portland.  On the Health and Human Services Committee, she is an cancer early detection activist and past President of the Maine Cancer Foundation.

Her sponsored bills in 2010 include initiatives to increase access to oral health care, add benefits for children covered in MaineCare, and numerous cancer advocacy pieces of legislation: lottery tickets for awareness, screening funding.

MeredithforMaine.com, her website, emphasizes endorsements by Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe.  In the Issues section, she ties controlling spending with keeping burdens off of small businesses and mentions health care, education, and energy but offers few details.

Burgess’ contributions totaling near $135 were generic donations to the Maine Republican Party. 

How the Casino Vote Played Out

Patrick and I had been wondering where the Yes votes accumulated for Maine bond issue 1 – which allows Oxford County to build its new casino. The vote was extremely close – 282,463 (50.5%) for and 276,845 against (49.5%).  In all of my research, I couldn’t Google a map that showed the county by county breakdown so I created one for dedicated Moogaz readers.

The northwestern rural interior clearly came out supporting the measure the strongest: Oxford, Somerset and Franklin counties all had stronger than 56% support.

Coming out strongly against the measure were the Downeast counties with Washington County leading the way; only 30% of voters supported the measure.   No doubt this was payback for the Maine state legislature voting against a similar casino measure for Washington County earlier this year.  

Along the I-95 corridor, Kennebec County (Augusta, Waterville) stands out in that they were an urban area strongly supportive of the measure.  York, Cumberland were not too far behind.  Of the I-95 urban centers, only Bangor (Penobscot County) voted strongly against.  This was no doubt because of their own Casino interests.

	Yes		No
Oxford	16150	62%	9703	38%
Kennebec	30258	58%	22164	42%
Somerset	11342	57%	8390	43%
Franklin	7401	56%	5925	44%
Androscoggin	22441	54%	19144	46%
York	42563	53%	37925	47%
Cumberland	65500	52%	61200	48%
Sagadahoc	8276	51%	7806	49%
Aroostook	13028	49%	13301	51%
Piscataquis	3678	49%	3816	51%
Lincoln	8167	48%	8772	52%
Waldo	7853	45%	9490	55%
Knox	7581	43%	10098	57%
Penobscot	25095	42%	34396	58%
Hancock	9376	37%	15823	63%
Washington	3754	30%	8892	70%

Comparing a very similar 2008 Oxford County initiative which was voted down 54-46, the Downeast support decrease is dramatic.  Cumberland and York Counties clearly were swayed by the jobs argument though; their support increased 8% and 10% respectively from 2008 to 2010.  The real game changers though were Kennebec and Androscoggin Counties, where 18 and 21% more voters voted Yes this time around.  Harder hit by the Recession than the urban centers to the South or the tourist towns to the East, these mill towns clearly sympathized with the Northern Counties and the jobs argument.  

	2008	2010	Change
Washington	59%	30%	-29%
Hancock	55%	37%	-18%
Knox	52%	43%	-9%
Penobscot	46%	42%	-4%
Waldo	48%	45%	-3%
Lincoln	47%	48%	1%
Aroostook	47%	49%	3%
Cumberland	44%	52%	8%
Piscataquis	41%	49%	8%
Sagadahoc	42%	51%	10%
York	43%	53%	10%
Franklin	39%	56%	16%
Kennebec	39%	58%	18%
Somerset	37%	57%	20%
Androscoggin	33%	54%	21%
Oxford	35%	62%	28%

Well, plenty of numbers to think about until construction completes in a couple of years.

Too Many Bragdons? Maine's Transition Begins

I noticed today in the Portland Press Herald that Gov-elect LePage has named his transition team. I was surprised to find that he named Tarren Bragdon to an unspecified role.

Tarren Bragdon is a former Maine state rep and is now CEO of the Maine Heritage Policy Center, a conservative think-tank that describes itself this way:

"The Maine Heritage Policy Center is a research and educational organization whose mission is to formulate and promote conservative public policies based on the principles of free enterprise; limited, constitutional government; individual freedom; and traditional American values–all for the purpose of providing public policy solutions that benefit the people of Maine."

Fine and dandy. But if you dig a bit further, you'll come across this great September article from the Lewiston Sun Journal . The LSJ contextualizes the Maine Heritage Policy Center within a growing national trend of conservative (and non-profit and therefore supposedly non-partisan) policy institutes that aggregate conservative cash and spend it through the release of partisan policy papers. They also point to this New Yorker article which analyzes the reach of Americans for Prosperity policy centers nationwide. It's astounding the amount of corporate money floating out there, influencing local elections and blurring the lines between policy, education and electioneering.

Interested, I checked to see if Maine has an Americans for Prosperity chapter. We do. And who do we have as the Director? Trevor Bragdon, Tarren Bragdon's brother. Small world?

Though LePage is quoted in the PPH story as saying he doubts Tarren Bragdon will play a role in his administration, his appointment to the transition team sends a clear message to Mainers: extreme conservatives in Maine will operate under the belief that Nov. 2 handed them a mandate for change. No more Bangor rallies with 25 people. No more voter-rejected policy initiatives like TABOR.

Maine has a Republican Governor and Republican-controlled Legislature. Let the transition begin.

Hoping for Cutler, Likely LePage

Those following the Maine governors race will note that 91% of the precincts have reported and LePage is over Cutler by 7,578 votes.  Unfortunately, a Moogaz analysis of the remaining towns shows Cutler probably will not be able to make up the difference.

Here are the top 13 remaining.  Estimating the total voters and expected voting percentages (by looking at surrounding towns), the total vote gain for Cutler is potentially only 1,100 votes.

Since all of the other towns on the list TOTAL to 12,000 voters, there’s virtually no path where Cutler can accumulate the 7,600 he needs to win.

But there’s hope in a recount.  We’ll have to wait and see.

Town	Total Votes Est.	Cutler	LePage	Others	Potential Vote Gain +- Cutler
Scarborough	7992	45	35	20	799
Waterville	4947	35	55	10	-989
Farmington	2944	45	35	20	294
Belfast	2571	46	24	30	566
Rockland	2396	46	24	30	527
Sidney	1563	46	24	30	344
Winterport	1493	46	24	30	328
Oxford	1490	32	40	28	-119
Madison	1477	31	49	20	-266
Litchfield	1325	36	39	25	-40
Pittsfield	1321	36	39	25	-40
Limington	1273	32	39	29	-89
Pittston	1080	35	55	10	-216

Eliot Cutler does know our fortune: Paul LePage

I've been ignoring the possibility of a third party candidate in Maine for as long as possible. Why? Because I know a third party candidate has some of the perspective I'm looking for in both a leader and politician - balls and vision. Usually they can't win though, and so I try to look the other way knowing that in the end I'll be both voting for and against one of the two major party candidates. In the case of Maine's gubernatorial, two things have made this strategy crumble: the utter ineptitude of Libby Mitchell's campaign and the very real possibility that we will wake up on November 3rd with Paul LePage in the Blaine House. Scary on both counts.

Eliot Cutler has always been there, fuzzy, in the background. The first push to the front was the incessant internet advertising. Then came the rising poll numbers, steady over the past month, all the way up to last week's Critical Insights poll putting him dead even with Libby Mitchell. And both well behind Paul LePage.

There's some earth moving in Maine this week. Momentum, once on the side of the underdog, cannot be stopped. A third party candidate needs believability and last week's poll gave Cutler just that.

But that's not the only thing! Do you know what else gave Cutler some believability this week? The Maine Democratic Party mailer tying "China's Lobbyist" Eliot Cutler to the loss of Maine jobs to overseas labor markets, most notably, China. On this mailer we have juicy quotes like "Maine jobs could go to China" and "As recently as this summer, while running for Governor, Cutler welcomed to Maine a group of Chinese businessman promoting Chinese involvement in our economy." What does that even mean? This mailer is a pathetic jumble of "China" sentences and a photo of Eliot Cutler. If it came from LePage's campaign it would be one thing; into the recycling bin it goes.

But because it came from the state Democratic Party I immediately think two things:

1. Eliot Cutler is a contender.
2. I should look into Eliot Cutler because this mailer manages to be both offensive (really, fortune cookies?) and wildly impertinent (really, isn't this election about job creation?).

And suddenly, Mainers, we have a three horse race.

Incredibly Sophisticated Graphs on Why Mainers Leave

My guess is that they get tired of all the lobster paraphernalia. Well, if you’re a data head you just can’t settle for hear-say.  So from the get-to-know-the-candidates area of the League of Young Voters site this weekend, I followed a study posted by Anne Haskell, my representative for district 117 called Where They Go and Why?

if you live in Maine, there’s really nothing in it that you didn’t already know.  But graphs and numbers are good for the soul.

Students who choose out-of-state institutions versus in-state ones mostly have the same framework for choosing; they look for quality of education in their field of choice.  As you might expect, affordability and connections to local jobs or family play more into students choosing locally whereas students choosing out-of-state are a little more likely to rate culture as an important aspect.   For first generation college students and ones who finance more of their own education, staying local appears to be even more of a factor.

What’s interesting is that the Maine brain drain doesn’t really happen when they choose a school.  The study shows that half of Maine’s best-and-brightest students go to Maine colleges.  So that’s good.

But when they graduate from a university or college, the numbers change. Two-thirds of the best and brightest “choose” to leave.  And the reasons for staying versus leaving are entirely based on their values.  If they say that they value friends, family, recreational activities, and social connections then they’re more likely to choose to live and work in Maine.  But if they value career opportunities, a job, or its benefits they’re more likely to choose outside.  And if they’re field was technology, they were even more likely to leave Maine.

The study also looked at what areas these graduates were in since graduating – helping professions a whopping 46%.

 

So what conclusions to draw?  The study concludes that increasing funding in education is an option.  Since quality is an important factor, schools in Maine need to stay at or above par.  But more importantly, the study rightfully places the focus on the transition from school (either in Maine or not) to work.

… if the goal is to have and maintain a more highly educated workforce, the evidence clearly points to the need for greater economic development. If Maine is going to be competitive in the global economy, Maine must expand its economic base. Only by expanding career opportunities will Maine be capable of turning Maine’s so-called “Brain Drain” into a “Brain Gain”. Clearly this is critical to the future economic vitality of the State and its citizens.

What the study doesn’t go into is what I call breaking the cycle.  If Johnny sees helping professions as a way to make a wage, he/she will study helping professions, and with a glutton of new helping professionals wages will remain at or near stagnant.  So people will pick something different and leave.  The shift to better opportunities has to happen as the graduate enters the Maine workforce.  Universities with incubator programs and strong ties to new industries break the cycle.  Suddenly, Johnny is exposed to a new idea or way to earn a living.  And this grows the industry which grows wages, etc.  If I had $50 million, here’s where I would put it.   

There’s a couple of caveats to this though, mainly (hee hee) in that the schools of Maine are in locations that don’t really have strong commercial bases – think Orono, or Farmington.  And on the flip side, Portland, with the strongest in-state connections to commerce, lacks a strong institution to partner with.  So lots of work to be done there.  Time for lunch though.

By the way, speaking of brain drain, my fourth grade self could’ve done the graphs in this study.

Check ME Out

If you drive around Maine (or New England) you’ll notice a lot of vanity plates.  When a coworker purchased one for his new car this morning, it made me wonder – where is Maine on the percentage of vanity plates?  And well, the Internet being a completely awesome place to pull random data on morning thoughts, here’s the rundown of states and percentage of vanity plates.

Maine is 6th in the country with vanity plates.  1 out of 10 people in Maine have one.  Vermont, New Hampshire, and Connecticut are all in the top 10 as well. 

Since it’s Friday, here’s something to do for the weekend.  Apparently there’s an official Consecutive Number Plate Spotting organization dedicated to the game of spotting numbers in license plates in order: 1,2,3, etc.  The rules are, as you imagine, quite a bit more detailed and exact. Originally a UK game, it most definitely can be played in the US but the founder warns that “ this game is very long and practically impossible to complete. In order to give yourself a fighting chance it is worth familiarizing yourself with number plates of cars that are regularly parked in and around your road. Especially if the numbers are within the next twenty or so that you are looking for. Then when your reach that number you can conveniently go and spot it. You can often clear 3 or 4 numbers on a good day if you are well prepared.”  He also advises that you write down you current number so you don’t forget and establish t-shirts and membership badges.

Remember the license plate above has a 4 in it.  You’ll need this by Sunday afternoon.

If it is Paul LePage

Really?

"If it is to be, it is up to us?" If it is to be why do we need to do anything?

I'm so confused.

Libby's Environment

Libby Mitchell's new ad is ineffective for three reasons, and I won't even mention the red sweater.

1. It's amateur. I haven't seen a green screen that green since Return of the Jedi. Couldn't she just film a natural backdrop au-dehors? It looks like she was cut and pasted onto the TV.

2. Mainers don't want to hear about the environment this election cycle, at least not the Mainers that are on the fence and could still swing either way. I can understand the logic behind the ad: motivate the base while mentioning jobs. LePage wants to stifle environmental protection. The problem is that she portrays "Maine" as the quintessential "environment" and what her progressive base wants more of is the windmills at the end of the video. The two are not convincingly equated for either voter.

3. Which calls attention to the most glaring deficiency of the ad: it tries to accomplish too much and so accomplishes very little. The voters Libby needs to target want to know how jobs will be created. Why not focus on a progressive industry (tidal, wind, etc.) and spell it out? Environmental protection does not a job creator make. Smart energy policy making does. All while appealing to your base.

Libby Mitchell, meet Will Bailey

Who is Libby Mitchell’s campaign manager?  Whoever it is, this person needs to go away.  If you haven’t followed the Maine gubernatorial race, here are the two headlines from this week. 

First on Wednesday, a PPP poll shows that Waterville mayor and conservative Republican Paul LePage is destroying Mitchell 43-29 with Cutler, an independent whose base is growing quickly at Mitchell’s expense, at 11 percent.  The last trend is evident from Nate Silver’s section on the Maine race in the NYTimes (and below).

To counter, what does Libby do?  She backs out of several Maine speaking events complaining that not all 6 candidates are represented.  Are you serious?  So today’s Portland Press Herald has a nice article about LePage and Cutler discussing Maine’s tourism economy notably mocking Libby’s absense.  Awesome move dipshit CM.

Well anyways, what a depressing Friday for Maine politics.  I wish Will Bailey was here to make things right.

Although, this just in. 538 has House rankings for the midterms … finally.  http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/09/10/g-o-p-has-2-in-3-chance-of-taking-house-model-forecasts/ Ughhh, looking to be a gloomy November.

My State

First, nice post Grant.  Read that article a few days ago and was as equally impressed.  There’s two underlying wants driving Politico’s original article: 1) for someone, somewhere to start liking Obama like they did during the campaign and 2) for Obama to become Josiah Bartlett (or Roosevelt).  In the meantime, people need to just be happy because anything less than those two things will be disappointing.  Which is why this weekend was so cool.

The Zumwalt and the Merrimack

Have an extra $6 billion and don’t know what to do with it? Today, the Pentagon awarded Bath Iron Works another Zumwalt-class destroyer.  The original plan was to build 32 of these guys, which are designed to have a low radar profile, operate with a small crew, and lob missiles at land targets.  So far, the 2010 budget calls for three – and the first one is being built at BIW already. 

The radar signature on this guy is like a fishing boat, which will be important with all of the enemy fishing fleets we need to sneak up on.  And the guns are really powerful, which is what I would expect for $6 billion.  Other than that, it’s main noteworthy feature is its tumblehome style hull originally introduced to steel ships by the French during the Russo-Japanese War.

So here it is kids … the new Zumwalt.

Moving to Maine?

Forbes has a cool app that lets you look at who moved where in 2008, based on IRS data.

Drilling into Cumberland County, here are some random things :

• More people moved to Portsmouth from Portland than the other way around. 148 people moved to Portsmouth; 113 moved to Portland. 
• Northern Maine is moving to Southern Maine.  All of the counties north of Augusta: Aroostoock, Penobscot, Washington, Hancock, Somerset, Waldo had more people moving to Cumberland County than the other way around.
• 44 people moved to Arizona from Portland.  No one moved to Portland from Arizona.
• Nobody from Portland moved to Arkansas.

As of 11:43PM Central Time

Results.

Libby Mitchell wins.  Paul LePage wins.  This will be a huge showdown in November.  A quick MuGaz calculation shows 78,767 votes for Democrats and 82,144 votes for Republicans.  Libby’s and LePage’s percentage of the overall vote was about equal (35.1% and 38.1%).  Starting out the gate, these two have nearly equal support.  So…. bring on November.

7 days away

Forgetting who you like, who runs the best in November against a Republican?  My thinking is that Libby, who arguably could be the most effective – she knows Augusta inside and out – will be a harder sell to Maine independents than Rosa, McGowan, or Rowe.  (note: this is a change from our car conversation Grant) The backdrop of November is likely to be fiscal control and getting Maine’s businesses going.  Hard to see Libby playing to that although she is a good campaigner.  Rosa’s campaign style – although spendy – hasn’t impressed me.  Not sure how much support Rowe has up north.  Not that this is a huge factor but comes into play (half of Maine’s population is in D2).  Press Herald has an interesting write-up on McGowan as the best of the four candidates - http://www.mcgowanformaine.com/news/democrat-mcgowan-possesses-best-blend-needed-strengths.  He’s a small business owner, experience in gov’t, and has thrown out some bold initiatives that will shut down any Republican attacks.

Leaning towards McGowan.  Libby is awesome but not sure she’s the best of the four to run in November. Thoughts?

Also …

There are 5 bond issues on the ballot; here’s a summary: http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/Maine_2010_ballot_measures#On_the_ballot. Press Herald has a couple of write-ups on initiative three and five.

Friday: A Local Piece

I can’t say I’ve followed this story with any zeal so I can’t say whether NextEra Energy Maine is right in tearing this structure down but after reviewing the pictures I’m sad to see progress.

http://www.pressherald.com/life/farewell__2010-05-09.html

(source http://mainetoday.mycapture.com/mycapture/enlarge.asp?image=29310249&event=997237&CategoryID=52602&Slideshow=Stop#Image)

A quick Google found this picture circa 1910. (source http://www.vintagemaineimages.com/bin/Detail?ln=12148)

This is a nice Flickr slideshow of the area … makes me want to head up to northern Maine this gorgeous New England weekend.  Have a good weekend MuGazers.