We were Spoiled

A business analyst’s take on why this winter has sucked so much from weather.gov.

Is it too much political irony that the flip coincides exactly with LePage’s January inauguration.  The cold icy winds of change can be tough on the soul.

While there may be only 10 days until spring, the 2014 election is 1,335 miserably cold days away.

Vernal Pools and the Trifecta

In case you missed the election of Tea Partier LePage to the Blaine House last November, the Press Herald today wonderfully illuminated the conservative shift Maine has taken.

The top left article describes how Maine’s AG is going to join a Florida-initiated anti-health care bill lawsuit.

The top right article goes into the wonderful relationship the Blaine House is forging with national civil rights groups.

And in the bottom right article, the governor wants to bulldoze vernal pools. 

At Scarborough Downs, we’d call that a trifecta.

For a minute, let’s explore the vernal pools article.  Make no bones about it, this administration wants to remove any barrier to development.   Need to bulldoze Bambi to build a WalMart.  Do it.  Need to steamroll a salamander to build a business park with no bus access miles from downtown.  Get out of the way.  In a LePagian world, developers lay down a hunk of cash and whatever they want is instantly built regardless of its impact to the surrounding community or environment.  Jobs trump everything.

The cool thing about the game Civilization is that you choose what world you want to build.  Choose Genghis Khan and you get a warrior society that scorches and burns.  Pick Caesar and you build temples and get culture.  The point is that our environment is dictated by the choices we make.

The current administration would turn Maine into Florida.  Need a 6 lane highway connecting plazas and gas stations.  Do it.  Need a low density housing development called Woody Corners where everyone has to get in their SUVs to go a tenth of a mile to get to the gate.  Build it.  Pretty soon you have everything the world can offer, and nothing. 

It’s important that we give communities tools to fight rampant development from developers that care very little about the world we live in and very much about the money in their pocket.  And it’s important that we choose our words carefully with groups that help underrepresented people in a state that could use more underrepresented people.  And it’s important that we help Mainers with health insurance, and at the least not fight the efforts of people trying to do the same. 

Anyways, the Press Herald glaringly, and sadly, shows us what elections are about.  So choose carefully.

House Speakers Part Deux

As a follow up to Keith's post, here are profiles for the three other Republican speaker candidates in Maine:

Andre Cushing

Andre Cushing of Hampden, is a rookie Representative, serving his first term in the House for District 39. From his website you can see that he is also on the Hampden town council and serves as Deputy Mayor.

Recently, Mr. Cushing wrote a guest column in the Bangor Daily News in which he makes a rather benign case against public funding being used in elections. You can read that column here.

You can also watch Mr. Cushing's "Voice for Paul" in which he jumbles together talking points in support of Paul LePage. (As a side note, I do plan to go back and watch more of these "Voices for Paul" and will report back).




Paul Davis

Hailing from Sangerville (way up near Dover-Foxcroft), Rep. Paul Davis covers District 26. Also serving his first term, Mr. Davis brings a stronger resume than does Mr. Cushing - four terms as a state Senator in which he served two terms as Senate leader.

In this 2006 commentary on Baldacci's re-election, we perhaps have a summary of Mr. Davis' ideals for the state of Maine, in particular this strong statement:

"Maine does not have an effective Energy Plan. And the hardworking people of Maine are paying the price. In addition to having one of the country's highest gasoline taxes, our electricity costs are increasing at a staggering rate.

Energy efficiency is a key to our well-being. We need a long term strategy.
A Strategy that brings all the resources of the private and public sector together.

Depending upon communist rulers and dictators for handouts and charity is not an energy policy.

Great! Let's make it happen. I and most MG readers can certainly support this, though I think we can dispute his characterization of Mr. Baldacci's energy policy. Mr. Davis' experience on the National Panel on Energy and Agriculture (under the National Conference of State Legislatures) shows commitment to issues to energy and conservation. I hope that when federal tax dollars are available for renewable infrastructure development Mr Davis won't turn his back...

Stacey Fitts

Stacey Fitts is serving his third term in the Maine house and represents District 29, which includes his hometown of Pittsfield. Mr. Fitts was the ranking Republican on the Legal and Veterans Affairs panel.

Mr. Fitts is a supporter of the Electoral College, casinos ("You know everything you do is a recycling of dollars, whether you have a restaurant or any other type of entertainment venue. So this [Hollywood Slots in Bangor] is just another example of an entertainment opportunity that people would like to have available to them..."), and the populism of petitions and referendums:





I was excited to see that Mr. Fitts was an advocate of wind power under Baldacci's administration. But as the Citizen's Task Force AGAINST Maine wind power neatly confirms, Mr. Fitts is also employed by Kleinschmidt Associates, a semi-national water and energy consultant. On his Linkedin page, Mr. Fitts lists his role at Kleinshmidt as Field Services Specialist. I guess that explains the tone of this Bangor Daily News editorial against small scale renewable energy generation.

As an aside, this was Mr. Fitts' democratic opponent in this November's election:



Amazing!

Hoping for Cutler, Likely LePage

Those following the Maine governors race will note that 91% of the precincts have reported and LePage is over Cutler by 7,578 votes.  Unfortunately, a Moogaz analysis of the remaining towns shows Cutler probably will not be able to make up the difference.

Here are the top 13 remaining.  Estimating the total voters and expected voting percentages (by looking at surrounding towns), the total vote gain for Cutler is potentially only 1,100 votes.

Since all of the other towns on the list TOTAL to 12,000 voters, there’s virtually no path where Cutler can accumulate the 7,600 he needs to win.

But there’s hope in a recount.  We’ll have to wait and see.

Town	Total Votes Est.	Cutler	LePage	Others	Potential Vote Gain +- Cutler
Scarborough	7992	45	35	20	799
Waterville	4947	35	55	10	-989
Farmington	2944	45	35	20	294
Belfast	2571	46	24	30	566
Rockland	2396	46	24	30	527
Sidney	1563	46	24	30	344
Winterport	1493	46	24	30	328
Oxford	1490	32	40	28	-119
Madison	1477	31	49	20	-266
Litchfield	1325	36	39	25	-40
Pittsfield	1321	36	39	25	-40
Limington	1273	32	39	29	-89
Pittston	1080	35	55	10	-216

Eliot Cutler Surges – Drama in the Maine Governor’s race

If you haven’t been paying attention, Eliot Cutler is surging in polls.  Two weeks ago, he never had a poll over 11%.  Now fresh off the presses he’s leading Libby Mitchell 28%-24% and only trailing LePage by 12% (LePage is at 40%).  Normally, 12% is a steep climb with a week to go but it seems support for Mitchell and LePage is eroding equally fast, and when asked, 51% of Mainers have a negative view of LePage. With 8% still undecided and a 4% drop in LePage support, Cutler leads.

It now seems pretty clear that Cutler represents the only real chance of beating LePage.  Democrats should think seriously about swallowing a pill and supporting Cutler.

How prevalent these third party independent candidates will factor into next Tuesday hasn’t been written.  But already there are confirmations that Bill Clinton asked Democratic Senate candidate  Kendrick Meeks to drop out so that Charlie Crist could beat Republican candidate Marco in Florida.  Clinton had at one time campaigned for Meeks.

Clinton campaigns for Libby this Sunday, travelling to Lewiston on her behalf.  Without the balance of the Senate at stake, it’s hard to see Clinton asking Libby to drop out, but with Tea Party control of the Blaine House at stake, who knows. 

If you’re a Democrat and you’re not sure what to do, here’s Eliot Cutler’s website.

Libby's Environment

Libby Mitchell's new ad is ineffective for three reasons, and I won't even mention the red sweater.

1. It's amateur. I haven't seen a green screen that green since Return of the Jedi. Couldn't she just film a natural backdrop au-dehors? It looks like she was cut and pasted onto the TV.

2. Mainers don't want to hear about the environment this election cycle, at least not the Mainers that are on the fence and could still swing either way. I can understand the logic behind the ad: motivate the base while mentioning jobs. LePage wants to stifle environmental protection. The problem is that she portrays "Maine" as the quintessential "environment" and what her progressive base wants more of is the windmills at the end of the video. The two are not convincingly equated for either voter.

3. Which calls attention to the most glaring deficiency of the ad: it tries to accomplish too much and so accomplishes very little. The voters Libby needs to target want to know how jobs will be created. Why not focus on a progressive industry (tidal, wind, etc.) and spell it out? Environmental protection does not a job creator make. Smart energy policy making does. All while appealing to your base.