Too Many Bragdons? Maine's Transition Begins

I noticed today in the Portland Press Herald that Gov-elect LePage has named his transition team. I was surprised to find that he named Tarren Bragdon to an unspecified role.

Tarren Bragdon is a former Maine state rep and is now CEO of the Maine Heritage Policy Center, a conservative think-tank that describes itself this way:

"The Maine Heritage Policy Center is a research and educational organization whose mission is to formulate and promote conservative public policies based on the principles of free enterprise; limited, constitutional government; individual freedom; and traditional American values–all for the purpose of providing public policy solutions that benefit the people of Maine."

Fine and dandy. But if you dig a bit further, you'll come across this great September article from the Lewiston Sun Journal . The LSJ contextualizes the Maine Heritage Policy Center within a growing national trend of conservative (and non-profit and therefore supposedly non-partisan) policy institutes that aggregate conservative cash and spend it through the release of partisan policy papers. They also point to this New Yorker article which analyzes the reach of Americans for Prosperity policy centers nationwide. It's astounding the amount of corporate money floating out there, influencing local elections and blurring the lines between policy, education and electioneering.

Interested, I checked to see if Maine has an Americans for Prosperity chapter. We do. And who do we have as the Director? Trevor Bragdon, Tarren Bragdon's brother. Small world?

Though LePage is quoted in the PPH story as saying he doubts Tarren Bragdon will play a role in his administration, his appointment to the transition team sends a clear message to Mainers: extreme conservatives in Maine will operate under the belief that Nov. 2 handed them a mandate for change. No more Bangor rallies with 25 people. No more voter-rejected policy initiatives like TABOR.

Maine has a Republican Governor and Republican-controlled Legislature. Let the transition begin.

Hoping for Cutler, Likely LePage

Those following the Maine governors race will note that 91% of the precincts have reported and LePage is over Cutler by 7,578 votes.  Unfortunately, a Moogaz analysis of the remaining towns shows Cutler probably will not be able to make up the difference.

Here are the top 13 remaining.  Estimating the total voters and expected voting percentages (by looking at surrounding towns), the total vote gain for Cutler is potentially only 1,100 votes.

Since all of the other towns on the list TOTAL to 12,000 voters, there’s virtually no path where Cutler can accumulate the 7,600 he needs to win.

But there’s hope in a recount.  We’ll have to wait and see.

Town	Total Votes Est.	Cutler	LePage	Others	Potential Vote Gain +- Cutler
Scarborough	7992	45	35	20	799
Waterville	4947	35	55	10	-989
Farmington	2944	45	35	20	294
Belfast	2571	46	24	30	566
Rockland	2396	46	24	30	527
Sidney	1563	46	24	30	344
Winterport	1493	46	24	30	328
Oxford	1490	32	40	28	-119
Madison	1477	31	49	20	-266
Litchfield	1325	36	39	25	-40
Pittsfield	1321	36	39	25	-40
Limington	1273	32	39	29	-89
Pittston	1080	35	55	10	-216