Sunday, November 7, 2010

How the Casino Vote Played Out

Patrick and I had been wondering where the Yes votes accumulated for Maine bond issue 1 – which allows Oxford County to build its new casino. The vote was extremely close – 282,463 (50.5%) for and 276,845 against (49.5%).  In all of my research, I couldn’t Google a map that showed the county by county breakdown so I created one for dedicated Moogaz readers.

The northwestern rural interior clearly came out supporting the measure the strongest: Oxford, Somerset and Franklin counties all had stronger than 56% support.

Coming out strongly against the measure were the Downeast counties with Washington County leading the way; only 30% of voters supported the measure.   No doubt this was payback for the Maine state legislature voting against a similar casino measure for Washington County earlier this year.  

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Along the I-95 corridor, Kennebec County (Augusta, Waterville) stands out in that they were an urban area strongly supportive of the measure.  York, Cumberland were not too far behind.  Of the I-95 urban centers, only Bangor (Penobscot County) voted strongly against.  This was no doubt because of their own Casino interests.

  Yes   No  
Oxford 16150 62% 9703 38%
Kennebec 30258 58% 22164 42%
Somerset 11342 57% 8390 43%
Franklin 7401 56% 5925 44%
Androscoggin 22441 54% 19144 46%
York 42563 53% 37925 47%
Cumberland 65500 52% 61200 48%
Sagadahoc 8276 51% 7806 49%
Aroostook 13028 49% 13301 51%
Piscataquis 3678 49% 3816 51%
Lincoln 8167 48% 8772 52%
Waldo 7853 45% 9490 55%
Knox 7581 43% 10098 57%
Penobscot 25095 42% 34396 58%
Hancock 9376 37% 15823 63%
Washington 3754 30% 8892 70%

Comparing a very similar 2008 Oxford County initiative which was voted down 54-46, the Downeast support decrease is dramatic.  Cumberland and York Counties clearly were swayed by the jobs argument though; their support increased 8% and 10% respectively from 2008 to 2010.  The real game changers though were Kennebec and Androscoggin Counties, where 18 and 21% more voters voted Yes this time around.  Harder hit by the Recession than the urban centers to the South or the tourist towns to the East, these mill towns clearly sympathized with the Northern Counties and the jobs argument.  

  2008 2010 Change
Washington 59% 30% -29%
Hancock 55% 37% -18%
Knox 52% 43% -9%
Penobscot 46% 42% -4%
Waldo 48% 45% -3%
Lincoln 47% 48% 1%
Aroostook 47% 49% 3%
Cumberland 44% 52% 8%
Piscataquis 41% 49% 8%
Sagadahoc 42% 51% 10%
York 43% 53% 10%
Franklin 39% 56% 16%
Kennebec 39% 58% 18%
Somerset 37% 57% 20%
Androscoggin 33% 54% 21%
Oxford 35% 62% 28%

Well, plenty of numbers to think about until construction completes in a couple of years.

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